Is India’S Agriculture Ready To Face Climate Change Challenges?

Agriculture and allied activities is the backbone of the Indian Economy. The growth estimates are heavily dependent on Indian agriculture that is heavily dependent on proper onset of monsoons. India is divided into a number of agro ecological zones/regions. Precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine and edaphic factors affect crop output. These are the variables that determine the climatic conditions. Climate change therefore is going to have major impact on agricultural systems worldwide. India is particularly vulnerable because small and marginal farmers will be the most affected. The fact is that changes in weather patterns are difficult to predict. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that rice and wheat production of India will drop significantly because of climate change. It says that a 1.5°C rise and two millimeter increase in precipitation could result in a decline in rice yields by 3-15 per cent. This loss will have to be made up primarily by increasing imports. Food and nutritional insecurity and malnutrition will affect the overall health status of millions of marginal people, with implications for infant mortality in large number.
 Many regions are expected to have 10-15% increase in monsoon precipitation with a simultaneous precipitation decline of 5-25% in drought-prone central India. Northern India is expected to witness a sharp decline in winter rainfall. This shall impact changes in output of winter wheat and mustard crops in north western India. An average decrease in number of rainy days of 5-15 days is expected over much of India, along with an increase in heavy rainfall days in the monsoon season. (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India)These changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of Indian agriculture which is highly sensitive to monsoon variability as 65% of the cropped area is rain-fed. This could significantly impact more than 350 million people who are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. The paper reviews the climate change impact on agricultural crops, horticultural crops, plantations, fisheries and dairy. The effects on crops will also depend on the specific region. An assessment by The Ministry of Environment and Forests and Climate Change describes the projections of climate for 2030’s at a sub-regional scale, such as the Himalayan region, the North-East, the Western Ghats and the Coastal regions. The paper describes implications of climate change like droughts, floods, sea level rise, on the agriculture scenario in India and its mitigating effects.
 


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