AN ANALYSIS OF THE VOLATILITY, PERSISTENCY AND PRO & COUNTER CYCLICAL BEHAVIOUR OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF INDIAN ECONOMY

Understanding the nature of cyclical swings in the economic indicators of that particular economy is essential for forecasting changes in that economy. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to examine the characteristics of cyclical oscillations in India's macroeconomic indicators. These characteristics of macroeconomic indicators include volatility, persistency, and pro- and countercyclical behaviour of indicators. The findings show that India's output is volatile and persistent. Real and nominal interest rates, as well as call money rates, are all quite volatile in nature. Oil prices and international trade are both lack stability. High volatility is also evident in bank credit. The cyclical variations in twenty-two of the examined macroeconomic are positively and strongly linked with the cyclical fluctuations in output (GDP). Only the cyclical fluctuations in four series have significant negative correlation with the output these are Real Bank Rate (RBR), Nominal Bank Rate (NBR), Prices of Silver (SIP) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI), making them counter cyclical indicators. Examining the autocorrelation function of output demonstrates that persistence is substantial in all most all the selected macroeconomic variables.

 

Keywords: GDP, RBR, Macroeconomic Indicators, Indian Economy, Autocorrelation.


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