Inflation And Unemployment Trade-Off : A Case Study Of Indian Economy In The Post Reform Period

This paper is an attempt to examine the existence of Phillips Curve in the Indian economy. AW Phillips in his seminal paper titled The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates, in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957 estimated the relationship between unemployment rate and rate of change money wage rates which he took as a measure of inflation. His study revealed that there was a permanent, stable, inverse and non-linear relation between the two. Unemployment and inflation rates are the cornerstones of development for any country. In this paper, it has been endeavoured to determine the existence of Phillips Curve in the case of Indian economy for the post reform period, that is, from 1990 to 2012. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method, correlation and Granger Causality approach are used to analyse time series data. Our findings are consistent with the Monetarists and New Keynesian schools of thought which suggested that the traditional relation between the two variables breaks down in the long run and also there is no causal association between the two. Our results lend support to RBI’s policy of inflation targeting to achieve the desired level of economic growth.


DOI:

Article DOI:

DOI URL:


Download Full Paper:

Download